It's really very simple: Some teams spend money and some teams don't.
The thing to remember is this: They all have money. They're all owned by billionaires or near billionaires or a consortium of very rich people.
Sure, the major market teams have more money. The local TV money for the Yankees or Dodgers is much greater than it is for the Royals or Pirates. Life isn't fair, after all.
But every team has enough money to spend to be competitive.
So, if your favorite team consistently fails to sign free agents--or keep young talent once their rookie deal expires--it's not because they can't. It's because they don't want to.
With that in mind, here goes:
AL East
Arron Judge can hit 70 homers and the Yankees still won't have enough pitching. And there isn't a weak team in the AL East to fatten up against. So...
As of this writing the Tampa Bay kids are 14-3. If they can maintain that pace, I'm guessing that 135-27 will probably win the division.
Toronto is good, too. No glaring weaknesses, unless you count that AstroTurf field of theirs. UGH.
Baltimore is better than they have been. Probably not good enough yet to win the division, but certainly good enough to cause problems for the other teams.
Boston isn't better than they have been. But the Red Sox will still find a way to be competitive. And no matter what their record, nobody wants to have to play important games against them at Fenway in September. Things can get weird up there in a hurry.
New York may have to settle for a Wild Card--if that.
AL Central
Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago are all flawed teams. And each has a chance to win this division. The Twins pitching isn't very deep, the Indians don't have too many power bats, and the White Sox desperately need Mike Clevenger to return to Cy Young contender form. It wouldn't be surprising for a team right around .500 to win the division. Whatever their relative weaknesses, somebody has to win. Let's go with the Guardians to repeat. But it wouldn't be much of a surprise if Minnesota or Chicago won.Very little chance of a Wild Card team here.
Elsewhere in the Central, Kansas City and Detroit are just bad.
AL West
This is still Houston's division. Even without Verlander, I don't see them being caught by any of the other West teams. Seattle has the best shot if the Astros suffer a whole bunch of injuries or a few season long slumps. Finishing a strong second should get the Mariners a Wild Card slot.The single best thing that could happen for baseball is for the Angels to make the playoffs. Trout and Ohtani haven't even sniffed the post season--and that verges on the criminal. And if they don't make it this year, and it's a long shot, Shohei Ohtani may decide to move on to greener pastures. This isn't basketball and merely having 2 great players doesn't guarantee anything.
Texas added Jacob DeGrom, who has spent the last three years injured off and on. Healthy he's an ace. But he hasn't been consistently healthy in a long time. So...good luck with that.
Speaking of luck, out in Oakland, the A's run of luck with money ball has simply run out. They will not be scrappy over achievers. They will simply be bad.
NL East
Well, if the Mets don't win this year, there will be one very unhappy hedge fund billionaire. Having spent 350 million bucks on his team's payroll, anything short of the World Series should be considered a failure.
And Atlanta is right there, hoping to help them fail. The Braves can seemingly reload on the fly without suffering a decline. Nice trick. Probably a solid Wild card pick--maybe take the division if the Mets falter.
Philadelphia spent a whole bunch of money only to finish 14 games out last season. They are still spending a whole bunch of money this year, and chances are they'll still finish way back of the Mets and Braves. They're not a bad team, they're just in a very tough division.
Miami has great starting pitching and not much offense. The Dodgers of 60 years ago used to regularly win World Series with that combination. But that was then and this now, and the way the ball flies these days, you better have a few big boppers to go with those good young arms.
And in D.C. the Nationals have spent the years since their World Series victory divesting themselves of almost all of their talent. An interesting approach, to be sure.
NL Central
Like the AL Central, we're looking at teams with a few weaknesses.
St. Louis looks to be the best bet, with Milwaukee right behind them. The Cards are consistently solid--not great, but always competitive. And the Brewers are developing the same sort of consistency.
Chicago added some good pieces, but not quite enough to win the division. Pittsburgh keeps finding good young talent and then losing them to free agency. And Cincinnati will battle the Pirates for last place, yet again. Two good baseball towns doomed by bad ownership.
NL West
This may be the year that the Dodgers don't win the West. They still have an edge in pitching, but damn that every day San Diego lineup is scary. Probably whichever team finishes second will be a lock for a Wild Card.
The Giants are rebuilding, but .500 should be attainable. And their ballpark is still one of the best, if not the best in the MLB.
The Rockies are always rebuilding.
In Arizona, the Diamondbacks have a whole bunch of young (potential) talent. If the majority of them pan out, they will be at least competitive. If the majority of them don't pan out, it will be another long season. The highlight of which will be the constant whining from their front office about the physical state of their stadium.
Which, even when brand spanking new, has always had all of the charm of a Costco. Such is life.
