Signor Baseball's Well Past Midseason, Hell, Let's Call It The Stretch Run, MLB Update

"And down the stretch they come!"

See what I've done there? Used the horse race metaphor!

Even though I'm pretty sure that none of the baseball teams trying to make the playoffs have tiny little men sitting on their backs whipping them.

Then again, who knows?

The thing about the one game MLB Wild Card playoff is that you usually have two flawed teams going at it. And while that may be fun for the fans in those cities, it doesn't often make much difference for the remainder of the playoffs. The winner will probably use their best pitcher, which kinda screws them for the next round. Not always--but often enough.

Anyway, as I write this, there are 7 teams still in contention for the two AL Wildcards and 5 for the NL.

In the AL, the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Mariners, Tigers, Astros and Royals are all within 7 games of each other. And Toronto is only a game up in the East, so they should probably be considered, too.

Throw out the Yankees, because they just aren't as good as the Orioles, Red Sox, or Blue Jays. They have just one dependable starter, and Gary Sanchez is probably not the second coming of Babe Ruth.  The Mariners aren't any better. That leaves Detroit, Kansas City and Houston trying to catch Boston, Baltimore, and Toronto.

If you go by pitching, KC and Houston have the edge over both the Orioles and Red Sox.  Add in the East teams all playing each other the last month and it gets much harder for Boston and Baltimore. They do score a lot of runs, but will that be enough to overcome their pitching shortcomings? The defending champion Royals have muddled along all season and still find themselves in the race. One strong month could put them back in the post season. In fact, that could apply to any of these teams. A good winning streak and they're in. But which teams are capable of that? It looks like a last day of the season scenario, once again.

So you make the Wild Card. So you win the Wild Card. To move on, you need at least two top flight starters, a consistent bull pen, and some clutch bats. This is shocking to say, but other than Cleveland, who has that? It's a muddle, I tells ya. A muddle.

The NL is only slightly clearer. San Francisco has had such an awful couple of months that it's time for them to play well again. They'll either catch LA for the West or take one of the Wild Cards. That leaves the Cardinals, Mets, Pirates and Marlins battling for the second Wild Card.

The Cardinals are the strongest all around. The Mets have the best starters--when healthy. The Pirates have a very good every day lineup and no dependable starters. Not a one. And I have no idea how the Marlins have stayed this close. Maybe Barry Bonds' Magic Beans. So, sorry Pittsburgh. Sorry Miami.

If New York can somehow recapture last season's magic, and figure out a way to score a few runs, they can catch St. Louis. After that, who knows? The Cubs look unbeatable at times, but they fell apart in last year's playoffs, so...San Francisco and Washington have the 2 Aces needed to go deep, and the Giants have a history of playoff success. The Dodgers have the "best pitcher in baseball", but the "best pitcher in baseball" has proven to be very human in the post season. He's also coming off an injury. And the rest of their staff is hit or miss.

To use an old William Goldman quote in another context, "nobody knows anything."

All in all, it makes for a very interesting few weeks of baseball.

Signor Baseball's 2016 AL Preview

My God, it's Tax Day!!! The jack booted thugs are at the door, and...OK, deep breath. Now, let's put this ugliness aside for a moment, try to forget all those corporations that spend countless hours avoiding paying their fair share, and ponder instead the fate of the junior circuit.

The AL East is made up of 5 slightly above average teams. Any one of them could win. Any one of them could crash and burn.

Toronto scores runs like a beer league softball team. But their starting pitching isn't particularly imposing. If it were, they'd run away with the division. Boston was way down last year and they usually bounce back. They've added an ace and if they get their normal offensive output they'll be alright. On the other hand, they've relegated a couple of hundred million bucks to sitting on the bench...Baltimore may have passed its window of opportunity, but with no clearly superior team ahead of them, who knows? They can score a lot of runs, and if their pitching holds up...? Nah. In New York, I wouldn't expect the Yanks' aging stars to get any better. And their ace is always one pitch away from elbow surgery. I guess you could say that about any pitcher these days, though. Again, they don't have to be "great" to compete in this division. However, staying reasonably healthy is a must. Once again Tampa will play pretty solid baseball before mostly empty seats. The more things change...You know, with all those Cubans down there you'd think both Florida teams would have no problem attracting fans. But I guess the younger ones don't care and the older ones are still too busy plotting the overthrow of Castro to bother with baseball.

In the Central it looks like a Kansas City dynasty is taking root. Although it should be noted that if the Mets had been able to make a couple of routine plays, the Royals would be 2 time losers in the World Series. Still, their everyday lineup is the best in the division and that bullpen usually covers the weaknesses of their starters. Cleveland and Detroit should stay close. The Indians have the arms and the Tigers have the bats. Now, if Justin Verlander can overcome what might be Kate Upton Related Fatigue (and really, who can blame him?) and regain his Cy Young form, then the Tigers will give the Royals a good run for the money. Minnesota is a sleeper here. If their young talent lives up to the hype...Which is the biggest kind of "if" in any sport. And the White Sox, with or without a "kids free" clubhouse, will turn a lot of Chicagoans into Cubs' fans this year.

Out West, I'm taking Seattle to surprise everyone. Why? No idea. Call it a hunch. Or too much chardonnay and not enough sleep. Houston is probably the smart pick, but because of my fear of a Cubs/Astros World Series, which is one of the first signs of End Times, I'm eschatologically opposed to choosing the 'stros. The Rangers and Angels, despite having a handful of all stars between them, look like also rans this year. However, if Yu Darvish comes back and Cole Hamels has a big year, Texas has a better chance to compete than the Los Angeles/Anaheim/Inland Empire/OrangeCounty ballchuckers do. Mike Trout may be the best all around player in the sport, but this ain't basketball and one super dooper star doesn't guarantee anything. That leaves the Billy Ballers in Oakland. Unless I'm greatly mistaken, anything and anyone of value will be available by late July. Having no money will do that to you. Besides, the A's just love to rebuild every couple of years. Don't they?

Signor Baseball's World Series Preview

Boy, I sure didn't see this one coming.

Royals vs Mets?

OK. Maybe the Royals aren't that surprising, although they surprised me. After the Blue Jays went all Evil Empire lite, grabbed a couple of primo free agents, and started scoring runs like a beer league softball team, I figured they would be AL champs.

And the Royals beat them.

But the Mets?

Four young starters, three with Tommy John surgeries already under their belts, David Wright not all the way back to being David Wright again, a second baseman who makes routine plays into adventures, an untested closer, and a patchwork outfield didn't inspire a lot of confidence.

This is why some of us love the game of baseball. Because you never know.

Daniel Murphy can turn into Babe Ruth, if only briefly...

So, who's going to win?

Kansas City has no obvious weaknesses, can run, have superior fielding and a great bullpen.  And whatever seemingly "odd" choices Ned Yost makes usually work out. The Royals look like the better all around team. Plus, they've "been there before", for what it's worth.

Still, the Met starting pitchers are very impressive. Never bet against pitching like that. In 1963 a Yankee team with Mantle, Maris, Berra, Skowron, Pepitone, Tresh and Richardson was swept by a weaker Dodger lineup. The Dodgers just happened to have a couple of guys named Koufax and Drysdale pitching for them. And in 1969, a Baltimore team that won 109 games, lost to an inferior Mets team which had, for a week at least, stronger starting pitching.

If their pitchers perform the way they did in the NL playoffs, I can imagine the Mets sweeping the Royals, and I can't imagine the Royals sweeping the Mets under any circumstances.

So, if I were a gambler, I'd have to take the Mets...in 6.

Unless all those young guys suddenly realize what they've been able to do the last couple of weeks and completely freak-out.

Signor Baseball's Mid-Season Update

Well, as Al Pacino was heard to shout, repeatedly, in Heat, "whadda ya got?"

Out in the NL West, your Arizona Diamondbacks, where it should be noted that Randy Kendrick, the wife of principal owner Ken Kendrick, just loves her some Koch Bros to death*, are better than I thought they'd be. Especially with that starting pitching. They also have a couple of legitimate young stars. The San Diego Padres are not nearly as good as I thought they'd be. Pitching problems here, too. And they brought in a bunch of talent that just doesn't fit together. Colorado is in last, where they belong, and so once again it's Dodgers vs Giants. Ho hum. The only question is which round of the playoffs will Clayton Kershaw fail in this time?

In the Central, the Cardinals are starting to come back to the pack a little. The Pirates look like they have enough pitching to stay with St. Louis the rest of the way, and at the very least grab a Wild Card. In Cutch we Trust. The Cubs are still a year away. And both Cincinnati and Milwaukee are major disappointments. Look for fire sales soon from the Reds and Brewers...

In the East, Washington is by far the strongest team. But since they haven't really won anything yet, it's hard to pick them to go all the way to the Series. The Mets have great pitching and very little offense, the Braves always find a way to hang around, and the Marlins still have a seemingly inexhaustible supply of young talent and probably the worst owner in MLB. And that's saying something. Overall, however, it looks like this is the Nationals' division to win or lose. Finally, in the City of Brotherly Love, the poor Phillies will have a "going out of business sale" very soon. Pray that your team gets Cole Hamels.

In the AL West, Seattle and Oakland have underperformed so far. That Robinson Cano contract is starting to look like a disaster for the Mariners, even sooner than predicted. But since Houston (!) is starting to fade, (sorry end-timers, but I think you'll have to "wait until next year" for that Astros vs Cubs World Series that was prophesied in the Book of Revelations), Texas is mediocre at best, and despite Trout and Pujols putting up huge numbers, Los Angeles isn't that good, should either team play just a little bit better, they'll be right back in the race.

In the Central, Cleveland and Chicago are the Cincinnati and Milwaukee of the American League. Fortunately, they haven't dug quite as deep holes. So, win a series here and there and there's still hope. Unless, of course, the Royals play .600 ball the rest of the way. The surprising Twins are short of pitching and should fade over the next few weeks. And Detroit has way too much talent to not be in the race until the bitter end. Unless, of course, the Royals play .600 ball the rest of the way.

Finally in the East, the Yankees may be in first place, but every team still has a shot at winning this division. There are no superior pitching staffs, each team is flawed in some serious way, and even the Red Sox, who sucked for the first two and a half months, aren't out of it. It's beginning to look like a "decided the last weekend" kind of year. There might even be a Wild Card team from the East, based on how the other divisions are muddling along.

*Where would we be without really stupid rich people to keep us entertained? Nowhere, mon frere!

Signor Baseball's 2015 AL Preview

Get out your needles and your "juice", A-Rod is back! That's right, it's time for our "National Pastime" to resume. Brace yourself for a summer of 4 hour games, endless pitching changes, blown calls even with replay, Tommy John surgeries, phenoms who fail, Cuban defectors, and all the other stuff that still fascinates those of us of a certain age or a certain mind set.

In general, the American League seems to be racing towards something like parity, irrespective of the amount teams can spend. This has nothing to do with the triumph of the free market, by the way. The smart boys in Vegas have a whole bunch of teams bunched around the 84-85 win mark, with none clearly dominant.

Which means Signor Baseball has no idea who is going to win.

But having no idea about what you're talking about is as American as, well, baseball, so here goes:

In the East, the Orioles are the class of the division, unless the dreaded--and inevitable--BSFS, (Buck Showalter Fatigue Syndrome), has started to set in. If it hasn't, Baltimore, which is loaded everywhere, might run away by mid Summer. By the way, Mrs. Franklin, young Ben Jr. and I had tickets to game six of the ALCS at Camden Yard last Fall. But there wasn't a game six because the Orioles got blown out by the Royals. The Royals! After a down year, Boston went out and bought bunches of ball players. A Panda now plays third base and a shortstop now plays left field. Most everybody in the Red Sox lineup can hit, a few of them can actually catch the ball, and if their pitching stays healthy they can hang close to the Orioles. Toronto has Russell Martin at catcher, which means the Blue Jays will probably make the playoffs, because teams with Russell Martin at catcher almost always make the playoffs.You can look it up, as they say. In the big city, the New York Yankees will need an injury free year from their entire team, especially their pitching staff, to contend. The odds of that happening are the same as the odds of Alex Rodriguez ever getting into the Hall of Fame. Derek Jeter's replacement, Didi Gregorius, has a major league glove, superior range, and a suspect bat--but if everyone else could hit, it wouldn't matter. Unfortunately, everyone else can't hit...Gardner, Texeira, McCann, Ellsbury, and a couple others can still play a little, but most of them are on the downward slope career wise, and unless everything falls into place the Yanks will battle the Rays to stay out of last place. How Tampa reacts to losing their manager and their best starter is anyone's guess. Their handful of faithful fans will be sad, but the vast majority of Floridians won't care a bit.

The Central should be a free-for-all right until the bitter end. Detroit has gone from having three number 1 starters (for all the good it did them in the playoffs last year) to just one to start the season. But they still have a lot of punch, and if Verlander can return to form the Tigers will be fine. Cleveland has a solid manager, a Cy Young winner and some good young hitters. Chicago added pitching and hitting. And Kansas City is the defending American League champion. So put those four teams in a hat and pick one. I'm going White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Royals. But it could be the exact inverse of that. Or something in between. Anything is possible in this best of all possible worlds. I mean, the Royals, for God's sake, were in the World Series last year. The Royals! That couldn't happen again this year...Could it? In this harrowing time, full of uncertainty, one thing is certain: The Minnesota Twins will finish last. Sorry Minnesotans...at least you still have all of those nice lakes to enjoy. 10,000, isn't it? That should keep you busy.

Out West, Texas had a nightmare, injury plagued season last year, and should've been primed to bounce back to close to a .500 record. Unfortunately, they've already lost their best starter for the entire season. A cynic might say this was God's punishment on Texas for giving us the Bush family. I will leave it to the theologians to hash that out. Besides, a .500 record wouldn't get the Rangers to the top of the division. Seattle is better, Oakland is better, California is better, and the Astros are, uh...never mind the Astros. But the A's traded away a big bat for a rent-an-ace only to fall apart late last year, and the Angels have spent a ton of money recently with disappointing results, so let's take the Mariners to win. I mean, why not? After the Super Bowl our hyper caffeinated friends in the Northwest need something to lift the gloom. Let's put the A's second, and the Angels, who seem to be acting like complete pricks in l'affaire Hamilton, third. That leaves the two Texas teams battling to stay out of the cellar. The Good Book tells us that one day the first shall be last, and the last shall be first. Or something like that. But not this year. Sorry Houston.

Of course, like a Republican presidential candidate, I could be wrong about everything. No matter; nobody--besides the NSA--is keeping track of this stuff anyway...