Baseball is unique among the team sports in that you only put your best team on the field every 4th or 5th game.
That's when your "ace" pitches. The next 3 or 4 games you will start, by definition, an inferior pitcher.
Now, on the better teams, the drop-off from your number 1 starter to your number 2 starter may not be that great. And the same thing applies between your 2 and 3, 3 and 4, and 4 and 5.
But on the bad teams, the drop-offs will be precipitous and calamitous.
So, yeah, it is a cliche, but it does almost always comes down to pitching...
AL East: the Yankees will hit 300 home runs...and they will strike out well over 1000 times. They seem to be overloaded with right handed bats, and there will be games they look like the reincarnation of the fabled Murderer's Row and games where they strike out 15-20 times. They have a great bullpen--on paper, though I'm not entirely sold on Aroldis Chapman as a closer. He ain't no Mo Rivera. Their starters also look superior on paper--but again, I'm not sure they can stay healthy for the entire year. Add in a new manager, who's never managed before, and a pennant begins to look problematical. I suppose they could figure it all out, have everything fall into place, and win 115 games...but, no. So let's go with the Red Sox to repeat, with New York and Toronto close behind, with at least one Wild Card coming from this division. Boston is loaded with big bats, too. And for some reason, their starting pitching doesn't worry me as much as the Yankees. Toronto will score many runs and hope for the best from their starters. Baltimore's window seems to have closed, and God only knows what they're thinking in Tampa.
AL Central: even though they fell apart in the playoffs, Cleveland is still by far the class of the Central. They can hit, they can field, and even though the bottom part of their rotation is sketchy, they still have enough to run away with this division. Chicago, Kansas City and Detroit all look very mediocre. The Tigers are in complete tear down mode, the Royals are attempting to rebuild and still stay relevant, and if anyone can figure out what the White Sox are doing, please drop me a line. Minnesota isn't mediocre, but the Twins aren't anywhere close to Cleveland, at this point. Slight chance for a Wild Card coming out of this division.
AL West: the Angels are now in possession of the Babe Ruth of Japan! And honestly, he's looked pretty good so far, both on the mound and at the plate. However, it is a long, long season, and if you have a weakness as a hitter or pitcher, your opponents will figure out a way to exploit it. So we shall see if Mr. Ohtani really is the Babe Ruth of Anaheim. Even with the Sashimi Bambino and Mike Trout, the Angels aren't the best team in this division. That would be the Astros. You know, the World Champions? Houston has added pitching to an already strong staff. They're loaded with hitters, too. Everyone else is playing for second, with the Angels and Mariners having the best shot at a Wild Card slot. However, Seattle has disappointed everyone the last couple of years, so why pick them to do anything? Texas doesn't look to have enough starting pitching, besides Cole Hamels, to keep up and Oakland may be the worst team in the majors. That small market, small payroll, overachieving thing seems to have hit a wall.
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