Let's see...where are we?
In the American League, the biggest surprises have been how good Oakland has been and how bad Baltimore and Kansas City have been.
In the AL East, New York is good, but Boston is better. So it looks like the Yankees will have to play the one game, winner take all, Wild Card game against probably Oakland. And the way their starting pitching has looked lately...well, they may be taking their 100 plus wins and all of those home runs home earlier than they'd like. What the hell happened to Baltimore? Jesus. It's one thing to go from good to average. That happens all the time in sports. But to go from good to tragic so quickly...that's the kind of thing that gets managers fired.
In the Central, the Indians have run away from a mediocre field. No other team in this division has a winning record, so it's kind of hard to know how good Cleveland really is. They do have strong pitching, though, and could cause some problems in the playoffs.
Out West, Seattle has been the biggest disappointment. So what else is new? Astros remain the class of this division, with Oakland a huge surprise. The Babe Ruth of Japan didn't quite pan out for the Angels, though he did show some flashes before the injury bug got him. And Texas is just plain bad.
So, let's take the A's over the Yankees in the Wild Card, and this is based entirely on how unpredictable New York's starting pitching has been. I suppose they could pull it together and make a run all the way to the Series, but...probably not. I wouldn't expect Oakland to go much farther than winning the Wild Card game. Cleveland is good, but not as good as Boston and Houston. Now that both of those teams are reasonably healthy, they should give us a very good AL Championship series. And whichever team wins will be the favorite in the World Series.
In the National League, the biggest surprises are Atlanta and Philadelphia. They were supposed to be a year or two away from contending, but with the Nationals mired in mediocrity, the Marlins being plain awful, and the Mets falling apart, those timetables got sped up.
So the East will come down to which team, the Braves or the Phillies, stands up to the pressure best. I suppose they could both stumble badly, and Washington could somehow sneak through, but that's a long, long shot. Slight chance for a wild card team from this division.
In the Central, the Cubs pulled away as expected, but the Brewers and the Cardinals still have a good chance at at least one of the Wild Cards.
And in the wild, wild West, Arizona, L.A., and Colorado should go down to the last weekend before anything is decided. None of these teams seems capable of pulling away from the others. The Dodgers, on paper, and when healthy, seem like the strongest team--but they sure haven't performed like the strongest team. Still, at this point I like them to win the West. The Diamondbacks and Rockies have a very good chance at one of the Wild Card slots, but getting both slots looks unlikely. So, flip a coin...
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals in the Wild Card. Cubs win the NL pennant. Cubs vs Red Sox in the Series. Wrigley Field and Fenway Park? Should be loads of fun!
Of course, I could be wrong about all of this....which is why I never, ever, bet on sports. Too many variables.
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